Australia to face an enormous drop in enrolment of international students due to covid-19 restrictions

According to one of Australia’s leading education think tanks, Australia is predicted to lose around half of its international student population by the middle of next year if the borders remain closed.

Two papers by Peter Hurley have been published by the Mitchell Institute, part of Victoria University, projecting the effects of the coronavirus on the international education market and the wider economy, and making policy recommendations to improve recovery.

Two papers by Peter Hurley have been published by the Mitchell Institute, part of Victoria University, projecting the effects of the coronavirus on the international education market and the wider economy, and making policy recommendations to improve recovery.

It is estimated that by mid-2021, there will be about 300,000 foreign students residing in Australia, a decrease of 50 percent until borders are reopened, and if the borders stay closed indefinitely, the reduction will be much greater.

“The greater the losses associated with the international education sector, the longer the travel restrictions remain in place,” the study states.

Modelling based on the rate of deterioration observed in the first six months of the pandemic suggests that by July 2021, there will be an estimated 50% drop in foreign students within Australia relative to October 2019.

“If travel restrictions remain in place until July 2022, the modelling suggests that approximately 165,000 international students will remain within Australia, a decrease of more than 410,000 compared to October 2019,” it says.

The study uses the latest data to chart the effects of the international student crisis in the cities of Australia and reveals that international students are seeing a substantial decline in every major Australian region.

Australia faces the dual issue of fewer new foreign students, combined with existing students leaving the country, Hurley said.

For international student visa applicants outside Australia, the study forecasts that any recovery would be sluggish, about 80-90 percent below what they were at the same time in 2019.

This is critical because those students who finish their studies and return home will be replaced by applicants from outside Australia,” it reads.”

“This suggests that for some time there will be a significant impact on overall international student figures, as new students from outside Australia cannot start their courses.”

He also cautioned that with about 57 percent, or AUS$21.4 billion, of the $37.5 billion in annual income associated with international education coming from goods and services invested in the general economy, the effects of Australia’s international education problem would be felt far beyond the university market.

The longer-term relationship between Australia and its foreign students with a large number of permanent residents was illustrated in a problem article, also written by Hurley, entitled International Students Essential To Coronavirus Recovery.

“International students have become an integral part of our communities from all over the world”

“In Australia, there are foreign students from 199 countries. The details demonstrating where foreign students live reveals how international students have become an important part of our cultures from all over the world.

“Future Australians are also foreign scholars. Around 13,000 to 30,000 foreign students turn to permanent residency visas a year. Of the foreign students issued a visa between 2000/01 and 2013/14, at some point after settling in Australia, 16 percent converted to a permanent residency visa.

He warned the Covid-19 pandemic is an extraordinary situation that requires extraordinary action and it is important to investigate ways to ensure a quick recovery in international student enrolments and to support education institutions so they can continue to function properly.

According to Hurley, continuing to include foreign student members in the coronavirus response is important.

His paper notes that it “equips policy makers with a better understanding of international students’ problems.”

The paper adds: “It will also increase the effectiveness of initiatives that promote the recovery of international student enrolment.”

It is also recommended to investigate ways of promoting new international student enrollment when travel restrictions end, to increase capacity across the tertiary education sector so that institutions can provide domestic students with the training needed to reskill and upskill, and to support current international students.